Jaguars’ Foreign Triumph and the Erosion of NFL’s Home-Field Advantage

The Jacksonville Jaguars’ Transatlantic Triumph

The Jacksonville Jaguars appear to have unearthed a secondary sanctuary in London, where they’ve enjoyed a resurgence of fortunes. Notably, they clinched victories against the Atlanta Falcons and Buffalo Bills, rejuvenating their season and bolstering their record to 3-2. However, a conundrum looms as they must now return to Jacksonville for the remaining six games on their schedule.

The Ebbing Significance of Home-Field Advantage

The Jaguars’ narrative encapsulates a pivotal aspect of the 2023 NFL season: the diminishing role of home-field advantage. Their performance in Jacksonville has been lackluster, with a winless 0-2 record. In stark contrast, their three away games have culminated in triumphant outcomes, underscoring a shifting dynamic within the NFL.

This season, the concept of home-field advantage appears to be rapidly fading, as evidenced by NFL teams experiencing more losses than wins after five weeks of competition.

Road Teams’ Dominance

Road teams in the NFL have been particularly dominant this season, amassing a 41-37 record. Even when we exclude the two London games, where the Jaguars played in both home and away roles, road teams maintain a commendable 40-36 record.

The last instance of NFL home teams concluding a season with more losses than wins occurred in 2020, a peculiar year marked by empty or partially filled stadiums due to COVID-19. However, this was an exceptional circumstance. In 2019, home teams secured victories in just 52% of the games, marking the lowest percentage since 1972 according to SportsOddsHistory.com. Although 2020 was an outlier, the winning percentage for home teams barely improved in 2021, standing at 51.1%. In 2022, it exhibited a momentary resurgence to 56.7%, but 2023 seems to herald a return to the previous norm.

Several factors, including more comfortable travel arrangements, subdued crowds in modern, state-of-the-art stadiums, and officials being attuned to the enduring trend favoring home teams, contribute to the vanishing luster of home-field advantage this season.

Road Teams in the Betting World

In the realm of sports betting, road teams have enjoyed a distinct advantage due to point spreads for an extended period. Since 2004, road teams have maintained a winning record against the spread in 14 out of 19 seasons, according to SportsOddsHistory.com.

Unsurprisingly, road teams continue to thrive this season, with a notable 56.2% winning record. Road favorites have secured a dominant 58.6% success rate, while road underdogs stand at a respectable 54.6%. This exceptional performance prompts a reevaluation of the traditional value associated with home-field advantage. Historically, NFL teams were awarded roughly three points on the spread as a home-field advantage, but this number has gradually dwindled.

An epitome of the diminishing role of home-field advantage can be witnessed in the matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the Los Angeles Chargers. Since relocating from San Diego, the Chargers have cultivated one of the NFL’s smallest fan bases, while the Cowboys boast one of the most extensive fan followings. The focus at SoFi Stadium isn’t on the fan count but rather on whether the Cowboys’ crowd will swell to 80% or more. Oddsmakers acknowledge the absence of a home-field edge for the Chargers, with the Cowboys emerging as a 2-point favorite at BetMGM.

While it’s still early in the season, and as weather conditions deteriorate, the performance of home teams may improve. A sample size of 76 games isn’t adequate to establish a lasting trend, but the evidence thus far is compelling.

For decades, playing on the road has been deemed a formidable challenge. However, this season, even as a season-ticket holder, the likelihood of witnessing your favorite team secure victory has dwindled to just below 50%.

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